Bigger Picture Research

UK films at the world box office in 2009

Figures released by the UK Film Council show the UK's share of world box office gross fell to its lowest level since records began in their present form in 2002 (Figure 1). As the chart makes clear, it's a wildly fluctuating picture year-on-year, driven by the performance of a small number of big hits.

UK films grossed around $2 billion in 2009, a 6.7% share of the total global theatrical market, down from 15.1% in 2008 when The Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace and Mamma Mia! topped the rankings (Table 1).

The highest grossing UK films in 2009 were led by Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Slumdog Millionaire and Sherlock Holmes.

The UK Film Council expects UK market share to climb again in 2010, courtesy of some big inward investment feature releases during the year (starting with Clash of the Titans, which opens in April in most territories, and ending with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I as the year closes).

Figure 1: UK films global market share 2002 to 2009 (click to enlarge)

Sources: MPAA, Screen Digest, UK Film Council

Table 1: Top three UK films at the global box office, 2002 to 2009

Sources: MPAA, Screen Digest, UK Film Council             *still on release as at 25 March 2010

RIP NPA

As a rule I don't post 'straight' news stories unless they have a specific research angle. But rules are there to be broken, as our MPs keep reminding us, and I feel moved to record my thoughts on this particular story. It's not even a fresh item, which shows how rubbish I am at this sort of thing.

Anyway, the New Producers Alliance announced on 8 March it has closed for business, which is a huge pity. I once gave a talk about UKFC research to an NPA audience at the invitation of former CEO David Castro, and it was a great evening during which I learned as much as I hope those attending did. And earlier this month I was due to appear on a panel discussing marketing and distribution as part of the NPA's 9 Point Producer Training programme, but the session was pulled when the company started to wind up its operations.

The announcement, made on the NPA web site, blames 'the recession and increased competition for training', which have 'contributed to a loss of membership income.' I wonder whether these two factors are linked, as more players enter the training arena to supplement income from other sources hit by the economic downturn. Here's how Netribution covers the story.

This is bad news all round, as the Netribution post makes clear. Independent filmmaking has never been an easy path to tread, and while digital wotnots and social doodabs have handed the creative tools to the self-organising masses, money remains tighter than ever and competition for audience attention is at its fiercest. To be sure, these are exhilarating and dizzying times for aspiring producers. But dizziness, as any five year old who has puked on their own shoes will tell you, can be disorientating with unfortunate consequences.

Which is where organisations like the NPA can really prove their worth, offering much needed advice and support, training and networking opportunities, and generating a sense of common purpose and collective identity.

Arguably, the NPA may have fallen victim to the explosion of 'free' networking and peer support that now exists for indie filmmakers, on both sides of the Atlantic. But as with all these things, there remains a need for trusted brands who offer high quality services to complement the free stuff. After all, no one ever got a balanced diet gorging vol-au-vents stacked high at a complimentary buffet.

Still, premium services have to be made to pay, and maybe this is just another reminder that the cult of free (yup, that includes blogs) has far reaching consequences at all levels of business and culture. Speaking of which, there are two excellent posts by Michael R Barnard on this very subject over on Truly Free Film (part one looks at the fate of the film biz trade press, and part two laments the rise of 'near free' Redbox DVD rentals).

Montage: French film in 2009; MPAA theatrical market statistics; FDA Yearbook; digital cinema; UK facilities sector

What a week it’s been for film business research. I'm struggling to keep up.

On Tuesday the Centre national de la cinématographie (CNC) published an overview of French film production in 2009, followed on Wednesday with news of the 2009 worldwide box office from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA). 

And only yesterday the Film Distributors Association (FDA), a UK trade body, published its statistical Yearbook at a launch hosted by FDA President Lord Puttnam.

This joyous bestowal of manna from heaven is not just confined to the last seven days. The previous week saw a digital cinema update from Screen Digest, and the UK Screen Association released its study of the UK facilities sector.

A surfeit of statistics indeed, but it'd be churlish to complain. Let's loosen our belts and get stuck in, starting with the CNC report (Bilan de la production cinématographique en 2009).

The press release paints a sobering picture: production investment fell by over one quarter (26.3%) to stand at €1.1 billion in 2009, compared with €1.5 billion in 2008. And fewer films were made during the last year, declining from 240 in 2008 to 230.

Of these, fewer were big budget features, and there was a consequent decrease in average budget size, which stood at €5.1 million in 2009 compared with €5.6 million in 2008 (adjusted to counter the distorting effect of the very highest budget films in 2008). For the first time since 2002, no French majority production was budgeted over €40 million. The full report also goes into detail about investment by French broadcasters and the CNC itself, and provides an overview of co-production activity plus plenty of other telling insights.

Over the pond, the MPAA’s Theatrical Market Statistics 2009 report serves up an equally hearty portion of market intelligence, ranging across worldwide box office and admissions trends, audience demographics, screen numbers and US production levels.

Briefly:

• Global box office gross totalled $29.9 billion, an increase of 7.6% over 2008;
• The US/Canada box office hit $10.6 billion, up more than 10% year on year;
• 3D releases accounted for 11% of the US/Canada total, compared with 2% in 2008 (and this from only 20 3D releases in 2009, up from eight the year before);
• 1.4 billion cinema tickets were sold in US/Canada, rising 5.5% over 2008- the first such increase in two years. Admissions per capita also increased to 4.3 in 2009. According to the press release, ‘sales were fuelled by repeated visits to the cinema by frequent moviegoers – those who go to the movies once a month or more and who make up only 10% of the population – who bought half of all tickets sold in 2009’;
• Worldwide there were around 150,000 screens, and 11% of these (16,000) are digital (more on this later);
• There were 6,039 cinema sites in the US, and Megaplexes (with 16 or more screens), which account for 29% of all screens, saw strongest growth in 2009. Almost half (46%) of all screens are now located in Multiplexes (8-15 screens), and single screen venues represent just 4% of the total.
• The production of US films has declined over the last three years, and in 2009 the number released in the US decreased 12%, the first such decline since 2003. The press release attributes this to all manner of recent trials and tribulations including, ‘labor issues affecting the industry in 2007-08, the recession and the challenges to investment recovery due to rampant content theft, and the decline in DVD sales.’

Check out the full report (a free PDF download) for further detail and some eye-catching time series charts.

Lord Puttnam’s address at the launch of the FDA’s Yearbook made much of the opportunities for new distribution models afforded by digital media and social networking. The Yearbook itself is available on request from the FDA, and according to Stuart Kemp, writing in The Hollywood Reporter, it contains some ‘mouth watering stats’, including the fact that ‘one in every five pounds spent at the UK box office was forked out on comedies last year’, and ‘one in every eight pounds was spent […] on 3D movies’.

This latter point echoes data about the growth of 3D presented by Screen Digest as part of its Cinema Intelligence service. 55% of the 16,405 digital screens worldwide are 3D capable. A Screen Digest press release describes the growth of 3D screens in 2009 as ‘nothing short of explosive, with a global growth rate of 254.5%, but this average is dwarfed by the growth rate of 614% in Western Europe’.

The release also notes tests are being conducted with 3D alternative content (e.g. 3D sports broadcasts), a subject previously covered in a Screen Digest report dedicated to alternative content (which was also addressed by Beyond Live: digital innovation in the performing arts, a study of live theatre screenings in cinemas by Hasan Bakhshi and Juan Mateos-Garcia of NESTA and Professor David Throsby).

Anyway, here’s what David Hancock, Screen Digest’s Head of Film and Cinema, had to say about the revitalising potential of digital roll out:

“The release of Avatar was the BC/AD moment for digital cinema, taking us from the prehistory of the first 10 years, characterized by research, false commercial starts, standards development and early pioneers, to the modern world of commercial cinema as it will be in the decades to come. Digital 3D, opera, theatre, music and comedy in cinemas, live 3D sport, and interactive adverts are all a part of cinema in the future; not just a place to watch movies but a multi-arts venue which can be the heart of small and large communities alike. The refreshment of cinema is firmly underway and it is now taking its place as an integral part of the digital media landscape on the one hand, and as a revitalised leisure venue on the other.”

The UK Facilities Sector: a key contributor to the film and television industries and to the UK’s creative economy, a study undertaken by Olsberg SPI and Trends Business Research on behalf of UK Screen Association, Ascent Media and the UK Film Council, shines a light on an oft overlooked part of the business- the all important facilities sector, which includes post-production, equipment hire, visual effects, graphics, transmission services, studios, outside broadcast and physical effects companies.

According to the press release, the study estimates the UK sector had an annual turnover of £2.2 billion in 2008.

Other key findings to note:

• The sector comprises 1,300 companies, employing more than 25,000 people.
• Despite this large number of companies, ‘only a very few have achieved scale in their operations’.  The sector is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, with 99% of firms employing fewer than 250 people, and 78% employing fewer than 10.

The report also contains an obligatory ‘economic impact’ assessment for 2008, with an estimate of jobs generated by the sector (50,850), the sector's Gross Value Added (totalling £1.6 billion) and contribution to the Exchequer (£262 million, excluding VAT).

There, we made it. Here's hoping for a quiet weekend.

UK cinema admissions, January 2010

I’m guessing at this very moment there’s a pair of black tuxedo trousers awaiting service in a dry cleaners somewhere in southern California.

Inside one of the trouser pockets is a single sheet of crumpled paper, an unread acceptance speech that begins in the spirit of, ‘I’d like to thank so many people, starting with my blah blah…’, and ends something like:  ‘I'VE CONQUERED THE THIRD DIMENSION...I AM THE EMPEROR OF THE UNIVERSE! etc.’

Of course, James Cameron wasn’t the only runner-up at last Sunday’s Oscar® ceremony. But he’s certainly become the most talked (and written) about. Still, there’s surely consolation in knowing that Avatar has generated revenues that would bring an embarrassed flush even to the cheeks of the Goldman Sachs board (worldwide box office gross total currently stands at around $2.6 billion according to The Numbers).

By last weekend (5-7 March), Avatar had shifted nearly £89 million worth of cinema tickets in the UK. It is by far and away the largest haul in recent box office history, and a quite staggering achievement. But that doesn’t mean there’s been a bonanza in cinema admissions during the twelve weeks since the film was first released, as the latest UK admissions numbers released by the Cinema Advertising Association show. That’s because Avatar’s commercial success has been boosted by the higher ticket prices charged for digital 3D screenings.

According to the CAA figures, January saw 14,583,485 admissions, a mere 0.5% rise over the same month in 2009. The inclement weather played its part: ice and snow brought what headline writers describe as ‘travel chaos’ to much of the country. Even so, January 2010 narrowly recorded the highest admissions for the month since 2004, and Avatar generated the lion share.

Figure 1: January cinema admissions, 2002 to 2010

Source: Cinema Advertising Association/ Rentrak

By the way, it’s all change over on the Digital Cinema Media (DCM) web site. DCM (Carlton Screen Advertising, as was) is one half of the Cinema Advertising Association (along with Pearl & Dean), and they’ve recently revamped their online shop window.

Fortunately DCM has retained the bit of most interest here, UK monthly admissions data, although the section is no longer labelled as such. DCM now describes admissions as ‘impacts’, which is marketing speak for eyeballs on screen, as opposed to bums on seats in old parlance. It's a purely semantic difference because the underlying data are exactly the same.

New data: film on UK TV

On the day the BBC Trust published the BBC Executive's strategic proposals for the corporation (which represent either a radical shake-up or mere window dressing, depending on who you believe), the UK Film Council published its annual overview of film on UK television.

To be strictly accurate, the stats cover only the five terrestrial channels and not those available for free or by subscription via cable, satellite or digital platforms.

Nonetheless, the picture is an interesting one - especially given its impeccable timing.

The UK Film Council report reveals a total of 2,218 films were shown on the five main network channels in 2009, much the same figure as in 2008. Channel 4 scheduled the most (561) and BBC1 brought up the rear with 338 (see Table 1 and Figure 1, courtesy of the UK Film Council).

Just over one fifth (22%) of the total were British films (the proportion stood at 23% in 2008), and BBC 2 led the way with almost one in three films (32%) originating in the UK. That at least squares with the BBC Executive's proposal for BBC Two to 'cement its role as the principal showcase for UK films in which BBC Films has invested.'

Recent UK titles (those released theatrically in the 8 years prior to TV broadcast) accounted for 7% of all films broadcast. The proportion of recent UK films shown on the main networks has increased over the last eight years, rising from 3% in 2002. According to the UK Film Council, this

'reflects the increase in the total number of films produced in the UK over the last decade and the shortened window between theatrical and free-to-air TV broadcast for films funded by BBC Films and Film Four.'

Curiously I couldn't find any substantive reference to BBC Films in the corporation's strategy proposals (other than that previously mentioned), so I assume funding for feature production will continue at the present level (£12 million per annum). But the proposals announced today do make other references to the BBC's approach to film in future.

For one thing, the Beeb intends to reduce spending on imported programmes and films 'by 20%, capping it thereafter at no more than 2.5p in every licence fee pound.' Does that mean studio-backed and distributed UK/US inward investment features (which qualify as culturally British for the tax credit) will be exempt? I guess it depends on the definition of an import.

The BBC is planning to spend the money thus saved by investing in 'new original British content to replace the acquired programmes and films from abroad which will be significantly cut back as part of this strategy.' So perhaps BBC Films will get a boost to its budget, after all...

The strategy proposals don't just apply to programming. Under these plans, the BBC web site is facing some judicious pruning. In fact whole branches will be lopped off, including the /filmfestival page which has not been updated since 2007. And the main /film page will be shorn of 'generic content', to include instead only content 'which has featured on BBC programmes or content to which the BBC has added distinctive editorial value.'

Quite what that means in practice is anybody's guess. But if you feel moved to plead the case for more (or less) of Mark Kermode et al on the box/radio/web you have until 25 May to submit a response to the BBC Trust's consultation.