Bigger Picture Research

Statistical nasties

In follow up to the previous post, with its silly season theme, I’d like to draw attention to a timely piece that caught my eye on the BBC news magazine site. Michael Blastland (author, with Andrew Dilnot, of The Tiger That Isn't: Seeing Through a World of Numbers) gives some handy tips for seeing through the misreporting of research findings.

He cautions readers against taking such reports at face value, encouraging us to compare the claims made about research findings with the research methodology employed, to see if the two stack up.

In lesson one Blastland discusses some of the common flaws in reporting survey data. ‘The news’ he notes, ‘is chock full of surveys. Many are blatant self-promotion and/or statistical garbage’. He's perfectly right- we should be wary of such things, especially at this time of year when there is a surfeit of quack research in place of proper news stories.

Impact of classification ratings on box office

A study published by Nielsen PreView and announced this week by Nielsen Co. stable mate The Hollywood Reporter found that the restricted ‘R’ rating issued by the MPAA limits the box office prospects of comedies more dramatically than any other genre.

The study involved analysis of 400 films released between September 2005 and December 2007, comparing the box office performance of R-rated and PG-13 rated films. On the back of this, Nielsen PreView estimates that around 17% of all comedies would benefit from a less restrictive rating.

Although the British Board of Film Classification operates a different classification system to the one employed in US, these findings nonetheless resonate with evidence from the UK. Comedy was the best-performing genre in the UK in 2007, accounting for a combined box office gross of £206.6 million, equivalent to 22% of the total. Analysis by the UK Film Council shows there were no comedies in the top ten performing ‘18’ rated titles at the UK box office in 2007, whereas comedies featured in the top grossers for all the other classifications. Comedy performed particularly well at ‘PG’ (the traditional home for family films with wide appeal) and ‘15’ (which includes gross out comedies aimed at the teen market).