Bigger Picture Research

A quick film business blog round up

Keeping up to date with industry commentators and the musings of well-placed insiders is one of the more enjoyable aspects of maintaining this blog. Reading widely around the subject has become a necessary habit, and it rarely becomes onerous.

The print-led trade press has always performed a valuable service in this regard, marshalling fact and opinion in digestible portions. But the internet- particularly web 2.0 platforms like Twitter, blogs and the like- puts readers/listeners/viewers in touch with developments in a more immediate and less filtered way.

Best of all, it’s possible (as suits your needs) to move seamlessly between eavesdropping and networking, between bearing mute witness to and actively participating in an ongoing conversation among the informed, the interested or the idly curious.

Quite how dynamic this free and fulsome exchange of film business information has become is evidenced by the blog roll in the right hand sidebar, which has grown enormously since this blog started, and continues to expand (although it is still only a fraction of what’s out there).

Anyway, I want to draw attention to some recent additions that make an excellent contribution to the ongoing conversation.

I’ll start with the most recent of recent additions, The A.K.A. Indie Film Blog. Author and industry consultant Jeremy Juuso kicked off this blog last month with a post about Cantor Fitzgerald’s movie futures market, the Cantor Exchange.

Juuso is author of Getting the Money: A Step-by-Step Guide for Writing Business Plans for Film, and I first strayed across his writings from a link on Ted Hope’s blog to a post on Baseline Research’s Research Wrap site about the box office chances of ‘self-released specialty films’ in the US.

It’s a canny and provocative analysis (witness Hope’s commentary), and the issues raised are absolutely pertinent at this time of shifting film distribution models.

As well as filing copy for Baseline Research, Juuso runs a consultancy whose web site hosts a marvellous array of freely accessible film data.

Throughout 2009 Juuso published monthly PDF reports listing independent and ‘independent-style’ films released theatrically in the US. Among the data included for each title are details of their theatrical release pattern and box office numbers, the involvement of above-the-line star talent, plus estimates of the budget and a summary of financing sources.

The information is derived from various online and public sources, and each title takes Juuso around 2-3 hours to research. ‘The goal’, as Juuso told me when I enquired about his approach, ‘is to paint a clearer picture for filmmakers and investors of just what kind of landscape they face when launching an indie film geared toward the US market.’

The result is a detailed release catalogue, of obvious benefit to anyone drafting a business plan or thinking of acting on one (or, for that matter, anyone trying to understand the way the contemporary indie sector operates in the US).

Screen Finance used to provide a similar service in the UK (for the price of a subscription), until it bit the dust last year (the bfi Library tells me the last issue of Screen Finance they hold is dated 17 December 2009, following Tim Adler’s departure to manage the London bureau of Nikki Finke’s Deadline Hollywood blog). In the absence of Screen Finance, I’d love to see Juuso’s approach replicated in the UK and Europe.

Alongside the monthly PDFs you can find The A.K.A. Report 2009, an overview of the US theatrical market based on analysis of summary data. And returning to where we began, the first post on Juuso’s A.K.A. blog lays bare the operation of the Cantor Exchange in lucid detail (check out entertainment attorney Roger Goff's blog for another view of the same). If, like me, you’re only dimly aware of terms like ‘going long’ and the ‘short position’ from coverage of the global banking crisis, Juuso’s post lifts the shroud on this arcane world and makes it comprehensible.

Now to a blog of a very different order. David Graham is CEO of Attentional, a television industry data provider and consultancy that supplies, among other things, BARB data to the UK Film Council, and is responsible for a number of film-related projects over the years including a study of the economic impact of the UK screen industries (with Cambridge Econometrics and Oliver & Ohlbaum Associates).

Graham’s newly launched blog, Building an Entertainment Powerhouse, takes a critical look at the current model for UK TV, setting out alternatives informed by a staunchly (but not unthinking) free market approach. There’s an engaging openness about the posts, and Graham has the advantage of working from hard data in crafting and elaborating his position. Check out, for example, his posts on the desirability of a European Pay-TV platform, and the growth of internet-based TV viewing and its implications for the licence fee. It’s still relatively early days, but this blog is definitely one to watch and will no doubt become more relevant if the general election goes David Cameron’s way tomorrow.

Over the coming weeks I plan to introduce other relevant industry blogs in a similar way, so if you have any suggestions for inclusion I’d be grateful to hear them. I’m particularly interested to learn about film business blogs from outside the UK and US.

New data: film on UK TV

On the day the BBC Trust published the BBC Executive's strategic proposals for the corporation (which represent either a radical shake-up or mere window dressing, depending on who you believe), the UK Film Council published its annual overview of film on UK television.

To be strictly accurate, the stats cover only the five terrestrial channels and not those available for free or by subscription via cable, satellite or digital platforms.

Nonetheless, the picture is an interesting one - especially given its impeccable timing.

The UK Film Council report reveals a total of 2,218 films were shown on the five main network channels in 2009, much the same figure as in 2008. Channel 4 scheduled the most (561) and BBC1 brought up the rear with 338 (see Table 1 and Figure 1, courtesy of the UK Film Council).

Just over one fifth (22%) of the total were British films (the proportion stood at 23% in 2008), and BBC 2 led the way with almost one in three films (32%) originating in the UK. That at least squares with the BBC Executive's proposal for BBC Two to 'cement its role as the principal showcase for UK films in which BBC Films has invested.'

Recent UK titles (those released theatrically in the 8 years prior to TV broadcast) accounted for 7% of all films broadcast. The proportion of recent UK films shown on the main networks has increased over the last eight years, rising from 3% in 2002. According to the UK Film Council, this

'reflects the increase in the total number of films produced in the UK over the last decade and the shortened window between theatrical and free-to-air TV broadcast for films funded by BBC Films and Film Four.'

Curiously I couldn't find any substantive reference to BBC Films in the corporation's strategy proposals (other than that previously mentioned), so I assume funding for feature production will continue at the present level (£12 million per annum). But the proposals announced today do make other references to the BBC's approach to film in future.

For one thing, the Beeb intends to reduce spending on imported programmes and films 'by 20%, capping it thereafter at no more than 2.5p in every licence fee pound.' Does that mean studio-backed and distributed UK/US inward investment features (which qualify as culturally British for the tax credit) will be exempt? I guess it depends on the definition of an import.

The BBC is planning to spend the money thus saved by investing in 'new original British content to replace the acquired programmes and films from abroad which will be significantly cut back as part of this strategy.' So perhaps BBC Films will get a boost to its budget, after all...

The strategy proposals don't just apply to programming. Under these plans, the BBC web site is facing some judicious pruning. In fact whole branches will be lopped off, including the /filmfestival page which has not been updated since 2007. And the main /film page will be shorn of 'generic content', to include instead only content 'which has featured on BBC programmes or content to which the BBC has added distinctive editorial value.'

Quite what that means in practice is anybody's guess. But if you feel moved to plead the case for more (or less) of Mark Kermode et al on the box/radio/web you have until 25 May to submit a response to the BBC Trust's consultation.

Oz data: 'Get the Picture' update

Screen Australia, the new screen agency replacing the Australian Film Commission, Film Australia and the Film Finance Corporation, has recently posted a number of updates to its excellent Get The Picture Online resource.

These include:
• Analysis of the Australian video industry by Sandy George.
• Analysis of subscription television in Australia by Bob Peters.
• Figures for the proportion of Australian households with computer, Internet, mobile, game console and DVD, 1998–2007.
• Data on the number of internet subscribers by speed of access connection, 2003-2007.
• Characteristics of households and users with broadband connections.
• Data on the proportion of Internet users accessing online audio and video, 2007.
• Figures for children’s use of the internet in 2003 and 2006.

Growing up in a wired world

Last week I fired off a hasty post drawing attention to publication of Ofcom’s annual communication market stats digest (The Communications Market 2008). Having now had a chance to look in more detail at the report I’d like to share a few more of the findings to catch my eye.

Now I don’t know about you, but when I was a nipper, some thirty or so years ago, the world seemed a far bigger, warmer and more straightforward place than it is now (probably due to the fact I was then much smaller, hardier and less cynical).

I’m not normally given over to this sort of nostalgic humbug (nostalgia isn’t what it used to be, as Peter De Vries once said) but after looking at Ofcom’s data about children’s media habits I can’t help thinking of my own childhood experiences back in the day when there were only three TV channels and remote control of the goggle box involved hurling a slipper at the on/off switch.

As Mark Cuban pointed out in a recent post, we don't live in the world we were born into, and the Ofcom data bring this point home forcefully. It's true that some things remain the same (like the worst warmongering instincts of our politicians, and the fact that an umbrella is essential for anyone holidaying in the UK), and other things are at least recognisable from period to period (thirty years ago a diminished Labour administration was stumbling towards defeat...). But one thing's for sure: communication technology has changed beyond all recognition during the last three decades, and with it the ways we interact with each other, share information and amuse ourselves. My children's experience of the world is undoubtedly different to mine in this respect, and Ofcom's data provide  intriguing evidence of these shifts.

Forecast watch: 'download to TV' spending

'A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised' (Anonymous)

Given the prevalence of crystal ball gazing in the film business, especially around the adoption of new media technology, I'm starting a series of occasional posts reporting the latest market forecasts being peddled about. In time we can see how close to the money they actually were.

First up is a report by Parks Associates predicting that US consumers will spend over $6 billion on Internet video services by 2013 (up from around $1 billion in 2008). This growth will be driven by 'greater ownership of connected game consoles, networked TVs, and alternative video-on-demand set-top receivers', according to the report authors, who estimate that direct-to-TV videos (i.e. content delivered straight to the TV via the Internet) will account for 75% of Internet video revenues by 2013.

In a blog post to accompany the publication, Kurt Scherf of Parks Associates makes it clear that he sees the TV as key to future growth of internet-based video: 'the results from TV 2.0 are indicative of the direction that the Internet video market needs to move... straight to the TV […] To not only survive but thrive, Internet video services must be more accessible directly from the primary entertainment center in the home. How the consumer electronics industry evolves to take advantage of growing array of premium Internet video content (both user-paid and ad-supported) will be a key development to watch in the coming years.'

Parks Associates growth figures are higher than other forecasts, like the numbers put forward by Lionsgate studio, which put sales from digitally delivered content at a more modest, though still impressive, $3.6 billion by 2013.

The Communications Market 2008

Ofcom (the Office of Communications) has just released its latest report charting developments in the UK communications market.

The Communications Market 2008 is jam packed with data on the TV, radio and telecoms sectors as well as an examination of converging media markets.

Among the tidbits on offer is the finding that 'consumers of all ages are showing a growing interest in accessing audio-visual content online; 17% of those with broadband watched TV over the Internet, up by eight percentage points on 2006 – and this is particularly apparent among younger people.' The full report is available to download from the Ofcom web site.

Sino the times

In the week the Beijing Olympics comes under starter’s orders, Varietyasiaonline.com reports that China has taken gold medal position as ‘the world's biggest online populace’. Data released by the state-run China Internet Network Information Centre shows that over 250 million people are online, an increase of 56% from a year ago. Significantly, penetration remains low with only 19% of the population using the Internet (compared with 70% in the US and 64% in the UK), so there’s still plenty of scope for further expansion. Some analysts forecast China will have nearly 500 million Internet users by the time of the London Olympics in 2012.

According to Variety’s report, over two thirds (69%) of Chinese Internet users are aged under 30, and nearly a third (29%) accessed the Web via their mobile (cell) phones. The most popular destinations are currently music or news related, but who is to say these young, on-the-move consumers won’t be turning in droves to the Internet in search of moving image content like their peers in the West (assuming state censorship and trade protection can be eased or circumvented)? A recent study by Integrated Media Measurement Inc. (IMMI) found that as much as 20% of TV viewing in the US now occurs online. Around half of these viewers use their computers as a substitute for their TV sets (the remainder uses the Internet to catch up with missed programming, or to enjoy something a second time around). That’s bad news for the TV advertising industry, and another stark reminder that the times they are indeed a-changin’.

BBC, PwC & PSB: QED?

Earlier this week MediaGuardian reported a leaked draft of Ofcom’s ‘storyline’ for the future of public service broadcasting (PSB) (albeit an early draft of the document, according to Ofcom’s PSB blog). Among a number of proposed options, it looks as if the BBC may have to share some of the licence fee with Channel 4 and other PSB providers, which is clearly not what the Corporation wants to hear. In the previous week the BBC Trust published research by Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) looking at the BBC’s economic impact, and concluded that ‘the stable funding of the BBC, through a long-term licence fee, is a privilege for the BBC, but also a vital source of stability for the whole UK broadcasting industry’. Well they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Phew, Wot a Pie Chart!

Around this time of year you can expect a veritable frenzy of news media interest in film data, thanks to publication of the UK Film Council Statistical Yearbook. This year The Guardian leads the pack with a two-page, full colour spread of facts and figures (pictured), which probably means someone in the graphic design department fancied a break from drawing maps of Afghanistan and Iraq.

The Times was somewhat more restrained, deciding instead to whip up debate about what constitutes a British movie (‘British blockbusters take on the world’). Matt Damon in The Bourne Ultimatum? British? Apparently he was wearing union flag undies during the shoot, which grants bonus points under the cultural test (provided they are made in Birmingham and not Bangalore).

Film, TV and PSB

Now here’s an idea: the BBC should not be allowed to acquire expensive Hollywood films. So says BSkyB in its submission to Ofcom’s second review of public service broadcasting (PSB).

BSkyB, or ‘the UK’s largest digital pay television platform’ for short, argues the BBC should focus on areas ‘where there is a real deficit in provision’ and ‘step back entirely from other areas.’ For the avoidance of any doubt, BSkyB concludes ‘there is no justification for the BBC using public money to outbid commercial broadcasters for Hollywood films and US series.’ (The Guardian, 30.06.08).

Strong sentiments indeed, but does the BBC have a case to answer?